Wednesday, November 06, 2002

Going Overboard

Kind of weird, but it seems like while our economy was so good not too long ago, it also seems that people have been saying forever that we are gonna snap out of this recession any day now. Nobody really seems to have an explanation as to why the economy has sucked so much for the past couple years, but everyone seems agreed that in no time, we'll be back to our glory days.

Well, I am no economics expert, but I personally think that this recession happened because of one thing: human nature. People are so irrational, greedy and stupid, and it makes me so mad. Back when the economy was expanding, everything was growing uncontrollably: the internet, the cell phone industry, professional sports leagues, and the NASDAQ 100, nobody ever thought it would all crash and burn like it has since then.

So what did people do? Anybody who knew half a thing about computers went out and started their own Internet company. Lucent built itself a little city out by the Naperville/Lisle area. Major League Baseball, already overexpanded with the Rockies and Marlins, went out and got the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays. Enron and other companies nobody had ever heard of spent millions buying the naming rights to stadiums or Bowl Games just so people knew who they were. And every common schmoe went and bet their savings accounts on whatever stock looked good at the time, having seen their friends around them get rich quick.

Now, did anyone back then think to themselves, "gee, there's no way these industries can keep growing 800% per year or at some crazy exponential rate"? Probably very few. No, most people and most companies, having made a hefty sum off the economy's expansion, went out and bought themselves more stock, built more fancy office buildings, and put out as many products as they could, expecting that demand would continue to skyrocket and meet the supply. The classic mistake of "counting your chickens before they're hatched" was one that just about everybody was guilty of.

So then what? The economy started to sputter. Or, the way I see it, people bought all the computers they needed, and got all the cell phones and digital cameras they could use. Companies upgraded their servers already and the country didn't need a million consulting firms or network advisors. Rather than realizing the fact that people weren't gonna need to buy a new [fill-in-the-blank] every other month, they tried to shove more down our throats. Everything snowballed from there, and before you knew it, all of the new internet companies that were so hot went bankrupt and disappeared. The bigger tech companies like Lucent and Motorola went on layoff sprees as their profits plunged. Soon enough, Major League Baseball was talking about contraction, while Enron Field stood as a symbol of the gigantic failures the country was experiencing and the uncontrolled greed which had brought the failures about. And the stock market continues to make new long term lows each day.

They say hindsight is 20/20, but wouldn't it be nice if we didn't have to set ourselves up for disaster? Wouldn't it be great if people had foresight for once? It's sad that human nature is so hard to overcome. Did you know that something like 90% of people who try daytrading come away unsuccessful? It is because of human nature. We are greedy and irrational, not to mention hopelessly stupid at times. Don't even get me started about how normal, educated people can actually have problems figuring out how to vote using a ballot.

Why did I just write so much on this topic, you might ask? Well, one reason is because I have problems writing anything short and concise. But honestly, this is something that really pisses me off. An economic depression sucks for everybody, but I think it is really nobody's fault but our own. I guess maybe I won't be able to change the world and make people smarter by this blog, but at least I can vent a little and throw out some irritable thoughts.